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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0820

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 22, 2018 14:09:46
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221409
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221409
    ALZ000-MSZ000-221545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0820
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0909 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Mississippi and Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 221409Z - 221545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue east across northern
    Mississippi this morning, with some threat of damaging winds.
    Although a watch is not anticipated within the next hour or two,
    storm trends will be monitored for an increase in organization by
    late morning/early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Distinct from cells over southeastern Arkansas, a
    separate cluster of strong to severe cells has organized over
    northern Mississippi. This downshear development will likely push
    eastward through the morning, as the downstream environment
    destabilizes with ongoing heating amidst rich boundary layer
    moisture. Enhanced 700-500mb flow and primarily unidirectional
    profiles noted in 12Z JAN/BMX soundings will occasionally support
    localized bowing with this cluster this morning, promoting some
    damaging wind threat. Although the current thermodynamic environment
    may not support watch issuance over the next 1-2 hours, convective
    trends will be monitored for more significant upscale organization.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 06/22/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 34089050 34449010 34568799 34408762 33878706 33558708
    33218713 33048745 33028831 33328981 33679044 34089050



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