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ACUS11 KWNS 081713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081712
SCZ000-GAZ000-081945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...Portions of GA and western/central SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 081712Z - 081945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to damaging winds may occur with thunderstorms as
they move eastward this afternoon. Isolated large hail may occur as
well. Watch issuance is possible for some part of this region.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently restrengthened across parts of
GA along outflow from overnight storms that moved over MS/AL. A
moist airmass exists downstream of this activity, and cloud
breaks/diurnal heating has allowed surface temperatures to warm
mostly into the lower 80s. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should be common
across the warm sector through the afternoon. Somewhat stronger
mid-level flow is present across northern GA into western SC, which
is on the southern extent of a mid-level jet centered over the
Mid-Atlantic. Both low and mid-level winds gradually weaken with
southward extent across GA. Storms will probably have a tendency to
be more organized across northern GA/western SC where 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear should be present. Convection is already
showing a tendency to grow upscale along the residual outflow
boundary. Strong to damaging winds should be the main threat as
these thunderstorms move eastward over the next couple of hours,
although isolated large hail could occur if convection can remain at
least semi-discrete. Radar trends will be monitored through the
afternoon for signs of increasing storm organization/intensity,
which may result in watch issuance for portions of GA into
western/central SC.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31638438 31928413 32268399 32688376 33578378 34648434
34948399 34958316 35048266 35168235 35088114 34738076
34138063 33298086 32258152 31388223 31068289 30988399
31638438



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