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ACUS11 KWNS 152248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152247
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-160015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0746
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...far southeast Wyoming...and
the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152247Z - 160015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms capable of isolated large
hail and damaging winds this evening. The short duration of the
threat should preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...A few strong storms have developed in the upslope flow
east of Laramie southward to areas east of Denver. These storms are
currently in an area of MLCAPE ~1000 J/kg but will be moving towards progressively more unstable air (1500 to 2500 J/kg) in the Nebraska
panhandle this evening. 0 to 6 km shear of 50 knots according to the
CYS VWP and 40 knots according to FTG VWP should provide sufficient
deep layer shear for sustainability of the strongest updrafts this
evening. Given the very steep mid-level lapse rates (~9 C/km),
isolated large hail will be the primary threat initially. The last
few runs of the HRRR indicate storms may congeal into a linear
segment in western Nebraska which would lead to a damaging wind
threat later this evening if this were to materialize. The limited
area and short duration of the threat will likely preclude the need
for a watch.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42130509 42360494 42790443 43010401 43030341 43030300
42980266 42820251 42440224 42020202 41700201 41250196
40940199 40430206 39920220 39590255 39230295 39200357
39200401 39350427 39850457 40710466 42130509



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