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ACUS11 KWNS 262247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262246
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Montana...western North Dakota...and far
northwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 262246Z - 270045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the plains of
eastern Montana in the next few hours. These thunderstorms will pose
a risk of large hail and severe thunderstorm winds. A severe
thunderstorm watch will be needed by 00Z (6 PM MDT).

DISCUSSION...Diffluent mid-level flow will continue to overspread
portions of eastern Montana this evening as a short-wave trough
rotates through the larger-scale flow associated with the closed low
over Utah. In response to this, synoptic-scale ascent will act to
weaken the remaining convective inhibition and allow thunderstorms
to develop across the plains of eastern Montana. The airmass
available to these thunderstorms is characterized by most-unstable
CAPE values up to 4000 J/kg (although 2000 J/kg will be more common)
and deep-layer shear values of 30-40 knots. This environment will be
more than sufficient to support thunderstorm organization and
longevity.

Somewhat large temperature-dewpoint spreads (on the order of 30-40
F) will yield a potential for strong, cold outflows with additional thunderstorm development along the outflows. Eventually these
outflows should either grow upscale enough to be considered a
mesoscale convective system (MCS), or congeal into one. Given the
deep-layer shear and instability axis, this MCS should move eastward
with time, persisting through the evening (past sunset). With time a
slight turn to the east-southeast may occur over the Dakotas as the
better instability will remain across western and central South
Dakota.

A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued by 00Z (6 PM MDT) to
account for the initial thunderstorm threats of large hail and
strong, gusty outflows.

..Marsh/Grams.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46390673 46950758 48200750 48820654 48500451 47560210
46300162 45290243 45450363 45900516 46390673



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ACUS11 KWNS 041926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041925
TXZ000-042200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...Portions of West TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041925Z - 042200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two will be possible later this
afternoon. Limited coverage should preclude the need for watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently initiated north of Marfa and
south of Fort Stockton. This activity is being supported by moderate instability, with low-level southeasterly flow transporting better
moisture into the higher terrain and steep midlevel lapse rates in
place. As MLCINH continues to erode, additional storm development is
possible, and one or two supercells may eventually evolve out of the
ongoing convection, given effective shear of 35-45 kt across the
region. With large-scale ascent essentially absent from the region,
storm coverage will likely remain sparse, but a conditional risk of
large hail and locally damaging winds will be present with any
supercell that develops. Due to the limited coverage of the threat,
watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON 29260295 30610391 31100412 31460352 31360310 30770243
29870226 29760263 29260295



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