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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0532

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 26, 2018 20:22:18
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 262022
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262021
    NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-262215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0532
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of Montana and far northwest Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 262021Z - 262215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in
    coverage/intensity this afternoon and evening with severe wind/hail
    possible. Trends will be monitored for a possible WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery from 2015Z shows
    thunderstorms starting to form over the higher terrain of southwest
    Montana and northwest Wyoming. RAP analysis suggests moderate
    instability over the area (e.g., MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg), as strong
    insolation (e.g., temperatures in the 70s and 80s) has occurred
    within an environment characterized by surface dew points generally
    in the 50s and steep mid-level lapse rates. Effective bulk shear
    values of 25-35 knots suggest that if storms are able to move off
    the higher terrain then they would pose a severe hail/wind threat as
    they exhibit transient supercell characteristics (i.e., mid-level
    rotation).

    Visible satellite imagery and RAP mesoanalysis suggest that a
    capping inversion currently resides across portions of
    central/eastern Montana. CAM guidance continues to insist that the
    CAP will erode enough for at least isolated storm formation around
    22-23Z. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with this
    activity as it spreads eastward toward North Dakota through the
    evening.

    A WW issuance may be needed if storms can move off the higher
    terrain and/or storms are able to form over portions of
    central/eastern Montana.

    ..Elliott/Hart.. 05/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

    LAT...LON 44050901 44471028 44571082 44801193 44941255 44981296
    45421327 46071342 46481344 47111283 47431152 48490873
    48990800 48990396 46620395 45530551 44650818 44050901



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 04, 2019 19:10:23
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 041910
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041909
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-042115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0532
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019

    Areas affected...southwestern Alabama and western parts of the
    Florida Panhandle vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 130...

    Valid 041909Z - 042115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 130
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Local risk for severe storms continues in/near WW 190.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a still-loosely organized band
    of storms moving across the southeastern Mississippi/southwestern
    Alabama border, while other/more cellular storms increase in
    coverage in a "warm-advection wing" extending east-southeast across
    southwest Alabama and western portions of the Florida Panhandle.
    With a moist/unstable airmass residing in/near the WW area, expect
    storms to continue spreading across the WW area.

    Slight backing of the surface wind field persists near the Gulf
    Coast, which continues to modestly enhance low-level shear. This
    suggests relatively greater -- but still limited -- risk for a brief
    tornado over southern portions of the watch area. Otherwise,
    moderate/roughly unidirectional west-southwesterly flow across much
    of the area supports locally damaging winds as the main severe risk
    -- especially with the linear band of storms.

    ..Goss.. 05/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 29868794 31898836 32308857 32848653 31958610 30408629
    29958713 29868794



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