:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 06-Mar 08 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 06-Mar 08 2025

Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08
00-03UT 3.00 1.33 2.00
03-06UT 2.67 1.33 1.67
06-09UT 2.33 1.67 2.00
09-12UT 2.33 1.67 2.33
12-15UT 1.67 1.67 2.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 2.67
18-21UT 2.33 1.33 3.00
21-00UT 2.33 1.33 4.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 06-Mar 08 2025

Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 05 2025 1150 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 06-Mar 08 2025

Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 08 Mar.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 09-Mar 11 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 09-Mar 11 2025

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11
00-03UT 3.33 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 3.67
06-09UT 3.67 4.00 3.33
09-12UT 3.67 3.33 3.33
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 3.33
15-18UT 2.33 3.00 3.33
18-21UT 3.00 3.67 3.67
21-00UT 3.67 4.00 3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on 09-10 Mar due to
influence from a negative polarity coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 09-Mar 11 2025

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 09-Mar 11 2025

Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 09-11 Mar.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 13-Mar 15 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 13-Mar 15 2025

Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.67
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.67
06-09UT 4.00 3.67 2.33
09-12UT 4.33 3.33 2.33
12-15UT 2.67 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.33 3.67 2.00
18-21UT 4.33 3.33 2.67
21-00UT 3.67 3.00 2.67

Rationale: Due to the continued southward orientation of the IMF,
G1-Minor storming conditions are expected to continue.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 13-Mar 15 2025

Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 13-Mar 15 2025

Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for M-Class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate)
flaring 13-15 Mar.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 16-Mar 18 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 16-Mar 18 2025

Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18
00-03UT 1.67 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 2.33 3.00 3.33
06-09UT 3.00 2.67 3.00
09-12UT 3.00 2.00 2.00
12-15UT 3.33 2.00 2.00
15-18UT 3.33 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 3.33 2.67 3.33
21-00UT 3.67 3.00 3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 16-Mar 18 2025

Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 16-Mar 18 2025

Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a chance for M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
and a slight chance for X-class flares through 17 Mar.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2025

Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
00-03UT 3.67 3.00 4.00
03-06UT 3.67 2.67 3.00
06-09UT 2.33 2.33 2.67
09-12UT 1.67 2.00 2.33
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.33 2.33
21-00UT 2.67 3.67 2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2025

Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2025

Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: A high chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and
a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3, Strong), will persist through 21 Mar.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 22-Mar 24 2025 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 22-Mar 24 2025

Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24
00-03UT 5.33 (G1) 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 5.33 (G1) 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 4.00 2.67 2.00
09-12UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
12-15UT 2.67 2.00 2.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.00 2.33 2.67
21-00UT 2.33 2.67 2.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected early
on 22 Mar due to lingering CME effects. No significant transient or
recurrent solar wind features are forecast on 23-24 March.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2025

Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 21 2025 1558 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2025

Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
M-class flares will persist through 24 Mar.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 25-Mar 27 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 25-Mar 27 2025

Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27
00-03UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 3.67
03-06UT 2.67 3.67 3.67
06-09UT 2.67 3.33 3.33
09-12UT 3.00 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.33
15-18UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.33
18-21UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 2.67
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 25-Mar 27 2025

Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 25-Mar 27 2025

Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2025

Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30
00-03UT 3.67 3.33 3.00
03-06UT 4.00 2.00 2.67
06-09UT 4.67 2.00 2.00
09-12UT 3.67 3.00 2.00
12-15UT 3.67 3.00 2.00
15-18UT 3.67 3.33 1.33
18-21UT 4.00 3.33 1.33
21-00UT 4.00 3.33 2.33

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to observe periods of G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 28 Mar due to CH HSS influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2025

Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 27 2025 0037 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2025

Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 28-30 Mar.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2025

Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
00-03UT 2.33 2.33 2.67
03-06UT 2.00 3.00 2.67
06-09UT 2.00 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 2.33 2.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 1.67
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 1.67
18-21UT 2.33 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2025

Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 30 2025 1642 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2025

Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
R1-R2 55% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 31 Mar,
with a chance for up to R2 events persists through 02 Apr. A slight
chance for R3 (Strong) events exists for 31 Mar - 02 Apr.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2025

Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
00-03UT 3.67 1.00 5.00 (G1)
03-06UT 3.33 1.00 4.00
06-09UT 3.00 2.33 3.67
09-12UT 2.33 3.67 3.33
12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.33
15-18UT 1.33 3.33 2.33
18-21UT 2.00 3.67 2.67
21-00UT 2.33 5.00 (G1) 2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 04-05 Apr due to anticipated recurrent coronal hole activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2025

Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
S1 or greater 15% 15% 15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 03-05 Apr, primarily due to the flare potential from Region
4048.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2025

Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05
R1-R2 70% 70% 70%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 03-05
Apr, primarily due to the flare potential from Region 4048.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 06-Apr 08 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 06-Apr 08 2025

Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr 08
00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 2.33 3.33
03-06UT 4.00 2.67 3.67
06-09UT 3.33 2.00 3.00
09-12UT 3.00 2.00 2.67
12-15UT 2.33 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 2.33 3.00 2.33
18-21UT 2.00 3.33 2.00
21-00UT 1.67 3.67 1.67

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on 06
Apr due to continued coronal hole influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 06-Apr 08 2025

Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr 08
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 05 2025 2005 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 06-Apr 08 2025

Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr 08
R1-R2 60% 60% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 10% 10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 06-08 Apr.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 09-Apr 11 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 09-Apr 11 2025

Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11
00-03UT 4.00 3.00 1.67
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 1.67
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 2.33 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 4.00
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 3.33
18-21UT 2.67 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 3.33 3.00 2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on 09 Apr under
negative polarity CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2025

Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 08 2025 2222 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2025

Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will
persist through 11 Apr primarily due to the flare potential observed in
ARs 4048 and 4054.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 12-Apr 14 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 12-Apr 14 2025

Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 3.33
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.67
12-15UT 3.67 3.00 2.67
15-18UT 2.67 3.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.00
21-00UT 2.33 3.00 2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 12 Apr due
to CH HSS activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 12-Apr 14 2025

Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 11 2025 1650 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 12-Apr 14 2025

Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is an increased chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 12-14 Apr due primarily to the flare potential from
Regions 4055 and 4060.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 15-Apr 17 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 15-Apr 17 2025

Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17
00-03UT 3.67 4.00 4.33
03-06UT 3.00 3.00 4.33
06-09UT 3.00 5.00 (G1) 4.00
09-12UT 3.67 4.00 3.67
12-15UT 2.67 6.00 (G2) 4.33
15-18UT 2.00 4.00 3.00
18-21UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 2.67
21-00UT 3.67 4.33 4.00

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming is likely on 16 Apr due to
CME arrival from filament eruptions that left the Sun on 13 Apr.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2025

Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17
S1 or greater 10% 10% 5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (minor) solar radiation
storms on 15-16 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 14 2025 0650 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2025

Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17
R1-R2 80% 75% 60%
R3 or greater 15% 10% 10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on 16-17
Apr, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events. Probabilities decrease slightly on 17 Apr.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 18-Apr 20 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 18-Apr 20 2025

Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
00-03UT 2.67 2.67 2.33
03-06UT 3.00 2.00 3.00
06-09UT 4.00 2.67 2.33
09-12UT 3.00 2.33 1.67
12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.33
15-18UT 1.67 2.33 1.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.33 1.67
21-00UT 2.33 2.33 2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2025

Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2025

Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: Isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely
through 20 Apr.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 21-Apr 23 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 21-Apr 23 2025

Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23
00-03UT 3.00 3.00 4.00
03-06UT 3.67 2.00 5.67 (G2)
06-09UT 2.00 3.00 4.33
09-12UT 2.00 4.00 4.00
12-15UT 2.00 4.33 4.67 (G1)
15-18UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 4.33
18-21UT 2.67 5.33 (G1) 3.00
21-00UT 3.67 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1)

Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are
likely on 22-23 Apr due to the influences of a positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 21-Apr 23 2025

Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 20 2025 1211 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 21-Apr 23 2025

Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 21-23 Apr.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 24-Apr 26 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 24-Apr 26 2025

Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
00-03UT 4.00 3.67 2.33
03-06UT 3.33 3.00 2.00
06-09UT 3.33 2.00 2.33
09-12UT 4.00 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2025

Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2025

Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 27-Apr 29 2025

Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
00-03UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.33
06-09UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.33
12-15UT 3.00 2.67 2.33
15-18UT 4.00 2.67 1.67
18-21UT 3.33 2.67 2.33
21-00UT 3.00 3.00 2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2025

Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2025

Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2025

Apr 30 May 01 May 02
00-03UT 1.67 1.33 3.00
03-06UT 1.33 1.33 3.67
06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.67
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 2.67
12-15UT 1.33 1.67 1.67
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.33
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.33
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2025

Apr 30 May 01 May 02
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 29 2025 0513 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2025

Apr 30 May 01 May 02
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for X-class
flares (R3-Strong) through 02 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 03-May 05 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 03-May 05 2025

May 03 May 04 May 05
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 3.67
06-09UT 3.67 2.67 4.00
09-12UT 3.67 2.67 3.67
12-15UT 3.33 2.67 3.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.67
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 2.33 3.00 2.67

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) intervals are expected early on 03 May
due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 03-May 05 2025

May 03 May 04 May 05
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 03-May 05 2025

May 03 May 04 May 05
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 05 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2025

May 06 May 07 May 08
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 4.33 4.00 2.33
06-09UT 3.67 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 3.00 2.33 2.33
12-15UT 2.67 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.33
21-00UT 3.00 2.33 2.67

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 06 May, and active levels on 07 May, due to sustained negative polarity CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2025

May 06 May 07 May 08
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2025

May 06 May 07 May 08
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity through 08 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 09-May 11 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 09-May 11 2025

May 09 May 10 May 11
00-03UT 3.33 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 3.67 3.00 3.67
06-09UT 3.67 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 3.67 2.00 2.00
12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 4.00 2.00 2.67
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset
of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing
blow CME from 05 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 09-May 11 2025

May 09 May 10 May 11
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 09-May 11 2025

May 09 May 10 May 11
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 09-11 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2025

May 12 May 13 May 14
00-03UT 4.00 2.67 2.33
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.33 2.67 2.33
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.33
12-15UT 2.67 1.67 2.67
15-18UT 3.67 1.67 2.33
18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.33
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.00

Rationale: An isolated period of G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on
12 May as negative polarity CH HSS influences linger yet diminish.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2025

May 12 May 13 May 14
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 12 2025 0001 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2025

May 12 May 13 May 14
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2025

May 15 May 16 May 17
00-03UT 2.33 2.33 3.33
03-06UT 2.33 2.33 2.00
06-09UT 2.67 2.33 2.00
09-12UT 2.67 1.67 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
15-18UT 2.67 2.33 3.67
18-21UT 3.67 2.00 3.33
21-00UT 3.00 2.33 3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2025

May 15 May 16 May 17
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 14 2025 0825 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2025

May 15 May 16 May 17
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 30%

Rationale: Given the magnetic complexity of Region 4087, theres a 75%
chance that M-Class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) level flare activity will
occur through 17 May with a 30% chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels
during the same time.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2025

May 18 May 19 May 20
00-03UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67
03-06UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67
06-09UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 4.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.67 3.67 3.00
15-18UT 4.33 4.00 3.33
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 3.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 18-19 May due
to influence form a positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2025

May 18 May 19 May 20
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2025

May 18 May 19 May 20
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 18-20 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 21-May 23 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 21-May 23 2025

May 21 May 22 May 23
00-03UT 2.67 2.67 2.00
03-06UT 3.33 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 2.67 2.33 1.67
09-12UT 2.00 2.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.33 2.33 2.67
15-18UT 3.00 2.33 4.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.33 2.67
21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected through 23 May due to persistent
CH HSS activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 21-May 23 2025

May 21 May 22 May 23
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 21-May 23 2025

May 21 May 22 May 23
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar flare activity is expected to remain low as most
regions on the disk are fairly simple in their magnetic complexities.
There remains a 35% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a 5% chance
for R3 (Strong) activity through 23 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 24-May 26 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 24-May 26 2025

May 24 May 25 May 26
00-03UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
03-06UT 2.67 2.33 2.33
06-09UT 3.00 3.00 3.00
09-12UT 3.67 3.67 3.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.33 2.33
18-21UT 1.67 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 24-May 26 2025

May 24 May 25 May 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 24-May 26 2025

May 24 May 25 May 26
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 24-26 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 27-May 29 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 27-May 29 2025

May 27 May 28 May 29
00-03UT 2.00 1.67 4.00
03-06UT 2.67 3.67 4.00
06-09UT 2.67 5.00 (G1) 3.33
09-12UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.00
12-15UT 1.67 3.67 2.33
15-18UT 1.00 3.00 2.00
18-21UT 1.00 3.33 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 4.00 3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 28 May
due to CH HSS onset. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind
features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 27-May 29 2025

May 27 May 28 May 29
S1 or greater 15% 15% 15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 27-29 May.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 26 2025 1306 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 27-May 29 2025

May 27 May 28 May 29
R1-R2 70% 70% 70%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 30%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) events over 27-29 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 30-Jun 01 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 30-Jun 01 2025

May 30 May 31 Jun 01
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 4.00
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 4.33 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 4.00 4.00
09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 3.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
15-18UT 3.33 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 3.33 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 3.67 4.00 3.33

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on 30
May due to influence from a negative polarity coronal hole. G1 (Minor) conditions are again likely on 31 May - 01 Jun due to waning coronal
hole effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2025

May 30 May 31 Jun 01
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 30 May - 01 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2025

May 30 May 31 Jun 01
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 30 May - 01 Jun.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jun 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale
G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 02-Jun 04 2025 is 7.67 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 02-Jun 04 2025

Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04
00-03UT 7.00 (G3) 4.33 4.00
03-06UT 7.67 (G4) 5.00 (G1) 4.00
06-09UT 6.67 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 3.33
09-12UT 6.33 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.00
12-15UT 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.00
15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 4.33 3.33
18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 4.00 3.00
21-00UT 4.33 4.00 2.67

Rationale: UP to G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 Jun
due to effects from a CME that left the Sun on 31 May. G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 03 Jun due to coronal
hole influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 02-Jun 04 2025

Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04
S1 or greater 99% 75% 60%

Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storms are likely
persist over 02-03 Jun becoming likely on 04 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 02-Jun 04 2025

Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04
R1-R2 65% 65% 65%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 02-04 Jun.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jun 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 05-Jun 07 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 05-Jun 07 2025

Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07
00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.33
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 4.00 3.67
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.00
09-12UT 4.00 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 3.33 3.00 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 3.00
18-21UT 4.00 2.00 3.67
21-00UT 4.00 2.67 4.67 (G1)

Rationale: G1 to G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on
05 Jun due to waning CME and CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming is likely again on 07 Jun due to CME influences from the 04 Jun filament eruption.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 05-Jun 07 2025

Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will
persist through 07 Jun given the flare potential and history of AR 4100
in particular.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 04 2025 2328 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 05-Jun 07 2025

Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a
slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 07
Jun.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)